Indianapolis Colts – I know. I know. The Colts are only in the second year of Andrew Luck and they’ve had some changes. But I look to look to momentum and positive change and I think the Colts have that going for the. As good as he was last season, Luck will be better in 2013. The change in offensive coordinators will allow the Colts to increase time of possession, make Luck more efficient, and help out a defense still being built to optimum specs. Indianapolis still needs a top flight running back but should be able to get mileage from a few promising players like Vick Ballard and Kerwynn Williams. If not, Luck is mobile enough to create opportunity with his feet.
Houston Texans – The Houston Texans have my #2 spot because they’ve lost what the Colts now have: momentum. A dismal end to a very promising season may have spelled the end of their window of opportunity. Matt Schaub has been effective but lost his edge in very important games that could have given them home field in the playoffs. Are they out of it? No. But the Texans now have to summon that mental attitude that makes or breaks Super Bowl contenders.
Tennessee Titans – The Tennessee Titans have enough of a running game to make them competitive. But there are some deep questions in the passing game and Jake Locker hasn’t answered those questions just yet. Being one dimensional just won’t cut it. Add to that a defense that 15th out of 16 teams in the AFC and the Titans will struggle, especially against the Colts and Texans, who can score points with aplomb.
Jacksonville Jaguars – Sorry, but I’m just not seeing the Jacksonville Jaguars as making a dent in the AFC South. Blaine Gabbert has been saddled with the job of restoring offensive firepower to a team that relies heavily on Maurice Jones-Drew running the ball. I’d consider that an advantage if the jaguars had proven talent under center and at wide receiver. The bright spot? The defense could improve under new coordinator Bob Babich.